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On September 25, 2025, data from the Yangtze River Non-Ferrous Metals Network showed that the average spot price of dysprosium oxide fell to 1.6125 million yuan per ton, a decrease of 2,500 yuan from the previous trading day, with the quotation range narrowing to 1.605 million - 1.62 million yuan per ton. This fluctuation is not an isolated incident, but a continuation of the recent adjustment trend in the rare earth market, and more importantly, it reflects the in-depth industry changes brought about by the restructuring of supply and demand forces and technological iteration amid the transformation of the global industrial chain.

The direct driver of the price correction comes from structural changes on the demand side. As a key material in high-end manufacturing fields such as new energy vehicles and wind power, the demand elasticity of dysprosium oxide is deeply tied to the prosperity of emerging industries. Although the global penetration rate of new energy vehicles has exceeded 40%, the upgrading of permanent magnet motor technology has reduced the dysprosium oxide consumption per unit compared with the previous period. Coupled with the breakthrough in rare earth recycling technology that has improved resource recycling efficiency, the growth rate of marginal demand has slowed significantly. While the wind power sector remains an important source of incremental demand, the performance improvement of ferrite magnetic materials is weakening the demand rigidity for medium and heavy rare earths. Meanwhile, the delayed mass production of emerging applications such as humanoid robots has failed to fill the gap in traditional demand in a timely manner. The superposition of multiple factors has made the market's short-term demand expectations for dysprosium oxide more cautious.

The game on the supply side has intensified the pressure on price adjustments. The political unrest in Myanmar once led to a sharp month-on-month decline in imports of medium and heavy rare earths, pushing the raw material costs of domestic separation plants to historical highs, but this gap is being filled by multiple supply sources. The domestic mining quota for medium and heavy rare earths has increased year-on-year; although capacity release is limited due to environmental inspections, the growth of overseas alternative capacity has significantly increased market pressure. More importantly, after the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology included imported ores in quota management in 2025, the industry concentration has continued to rise. Leading enterprises have stabilized their market share through long-term agreements to lock in prices, while small and medium-sized traders have been forced to sell goods at low prices due to high inventories, further amplifying the downward pressure on spot prices

. It is worth noting that the current price has approached the cost line of some enterprises, and the market is entering a critical stage of supply-demand rebalancing. The total volume control and export control at the policy level still play a supporting role. The export control on 7 categories of medium and heavy rare earth items implemented in April has not reversed the short-term price trend, but it has effectively maintained China's dominant position in the global supply chain. In the long run, high-power motors for new energy vehicles, direct-drive permanent magnet technology for offshore wind power, and the industrialization of humanoid robots will still underpin the rigid demand for dysprosium oxide. The global rare earth demand is expected to achieve a compound annual growth rate of over 8% from 2025 to 2030, and the tight balance pattern between supply and demand has not undergone fundamental changes.

The current price correction of dysprosium oxide is essentially a phased adjustment in the industry's transformation from policy-driven to a dual-drive model of demand and technology. The game between short-term cost support and long-term demand resilience will dominate the dynamic balance of the price center. For the market, this is not only an inevitable process of deinventorying and optimizing structure, but also provides a window to identify leading enterprises with resource advantages and technological barriers. It further confirms the core logic of the rare earth industry: "focus on inventory in the short term, policies in the medium term, and demand in the long term."